Droid an iPod Killer?

I know it’s not fair to compare the droid against the iPhone 3GS or iPhone 3G releases. But what about the original iPhone?

Droid, launch weekend estimates: 100,000.
iPhone: launch weekend estimates: 375,000 ~ 700,000.

Note that the iPhone estimates were apparently overestimates – it’s tough to tally because AT&T only signed up 146,000 customers that weekend and Apple launched it over the end of a quarter and split up the sales between quarters (read the link above – has a pretty good analysis). So does the 100,000 estimate correspond more closely to signups rather than sold units? Perhaps.

But even then, I’d say Droid failed. When the iPhone came out, it was creating a new market – there weren’t nearly as many people interested in smart phones as there are now. To sell even 30% less than the original iPhone that didn’t even have apps or 3G and cost $500 to $600 seems like a pretty big failure. It should have been much closer to the 3G’s launch, which was about 1 million units.

Now whether Android is a failure or not is another matter. What do you do, tally all the Android based phones launching on their original weekend. Will that surpass 1 million by the end of this year? Quite possibly. I don’t think Verizon has changed this back to a network game – it’s still a device game and the better device platform over time will win – whether it’s iPhone or Android.

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